FORECAST HITS
The Track Record
Identifying economic and geopolitical change before it becomes mainstream thinking.
Unrivalled long term forecasting success
Economic and geopolitical analysis you can trust.
We seek to identify major structural shifts and turning points before they become consensus views.
The examples below illustrate a sample of major forecasts made a long time before the market fully recognised their significance.
Some of the forecasts such as the Great Race and Great Reckoning are only beginning to play out now.
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3+
Decades of experience
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Unprecedented
foresight
The number of major forecast calls
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Challenging conventional wisdom
Ahead of the curve
FORECAST TIMELINE
1989
UK Housing Crash
Forecast the early 1990s crash in the housing market.
1989
The collapse of Communism
Forecast the collapse of communism and the break-up of the Soviet Union, long before other commentators were discussing the possibility.
1991
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Japan's Lost Decades
Forecast prolonged economic stagnation following Japan's financial collapse.
1990
Exit from the ERM
Anticipated the UKs exit from the Exchange Rate Mechanism.
1997
Spanish & Irish Housing Boom & Bust
Forecast the boom and bust in the Spanish and Irish housing markets due to accession to the euro
1997
The UK would not join the Euro
Correctly forecast the economic and political reasons why the UK would never join the euro.
2006
US Housing Crisis
Forecast the boom and bust in the US housing market which risked destabilising the financial system.
EARLY 2000s
2006
UK GDP's link with Immigration
UK GDP growth would become increasingly dependent on the boost to the labour supply from immigration.
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UK Growth
UK potential output growth would halve to 1% in the 2010s as a result of the growth of the state
JUNE 2020
Post-Pandemic Inflation
Forecast that the pandemic acceleration in the broad money supply would lead to a surge in subsequent inflation.
2013
China Growth Deceleration
Forecast Chinese GDP growth would slow sharply, halving to 5% in the early 2020s.
2010
Brexit
Forecast in 2010 that the UK's exit from the EU would occur within a decade.
2021
The Great Race
The 2020s and 2030s will be characterised by a race to win the productivity benefits of AI before the costs of ageing and statism fully kick-in to depress growth.
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2024
The Great Reckoning
US and advanced economy fiscal excess will lead to increasing bond market volatility, resulting ultimately in a debt crisis. This could occur in the second half of the 2020s, but there may be one more kick of the can down the road (more QE), in the event of an economic downturn, with the reckoning pushed out to the early 2030s.
2024
Middle-East Realignment
October 7th 2023 was the 'storm before the calm'. Middle East geopolitics could be transformed in the second half of the 2020s by an expansion of the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia.
2024
US Election & Trade Policy
Forecast President Trump would win a second term in office – with a 312 landslide in the electoral college – and initiate a far more damaging trade war than in his first term (forecast made in August 2024 when Vice President Harris was well ahead in the polls).
2024
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The Defining Decade
The period 2025-2035 will be the defining decade of the 21st century owing to the intersection of seismic change in the economy and geopolitics, together with historic generational shifts (in demography, culture and society).
