WHO WE ARE.
About Us
Global4cast was founded to cut through the noise and focus on what really drives economies.
WHY ARE WE UNIQUE?
There are three reasons
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First, we look at the short-term (up to two years ahead) economic outlook in a very different way to other commentators by acknowledging the radical uncertainty at the heart of forecasting. To counter this we emphasise the use of scenarios and understanding the story behind the numbers. The failures of conventional forecasting are legion. Our approach helps clients identify the signals that alternative scenarios are coming to pass.
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Second, we believe that economic forecasting is more art than science and that traditional model based approaches are doomed to failure because every economic cycle is unique in its own way. In our view, many of the shortcomings of economic forecasting are due to a failure of imagination. Greater cognitive diversity is required.
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Third, we look at the long-term economic outlook in a very different way to our competitors: (a) By focusing in on it in the first place (b) By eschewing trend extrapolation and instead focusing on the driving forces of change on the supply-side and how they will differ in the future.
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Lateral thinking
The economic outlook is characterised by radical uncertainty – the fog of tomorrow.
Models are tools for thinking and should never be seen as predictive machines. They do not represent economic reality. It is dangerous when economists mistake the model for the real world. Dependance on abstract equations is pseudo science.
We need a new approach whereby the story is more important than the numbers - understanding what is going on, and the forces driving it, as opposed to obsessing with a single point forecast.
So many economic forecasting failures are the result of group think. For example, in mid-2020 the consensus view was that the scale of economic downturn during the pandemic negated any inflation threat.
Adding to the uncertainty, very often data deficiencies mean that we do not understand what is happening at present, let alone the future.
All of these reasons inevitably lead to a scenario based approach to help clients identify the forces, scenarios and warning signals that alternative outcomes are coming to pass.
Long-term thinking
We look at the economy through a longer lens, helping clients to align their investments with long-term economic fundamentals and the structural forces shaping the world economy over the coming decade(s).
The long-term is not an abstraction, it is where all true value resides. To understand future potential growth is to understand where the most value will be created in the decade(s) ahead.
We need to learn the lessons of economic history – even if it doesn't necessarily repeat itself. There are times when you can see the future through the rear-view mirror.
The importance of broad money growth and its powerful link with nominal GDP over the long-term, cannot be ignored. Broad money matters.
Global4cast proprietary themes such as the Defining Decade, the Great Race and the Great Reckoning have huge implication for strategic investment decisions.
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OUR APPROACH
We provide the big picture
We want to help clients see the big picture, in concise, accessible reports, so as to understand:
How alternative economic scenarios could come to pass and how to spot the warning signals.
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The complete picture with regard to the drivers of long-term growth.